Analysis of glass market situation in the second q

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Analysis of the glass market situation in the second quarter of 2009

after the ordeal of 2008, the first quarter of 2009 was also a season that made enterprises uncomfortable. The market continued to decline as expected, and there was no room for product prices to rise. Many enterprises felt unprecedented pressure

after the main beam of the beam experimental machine experienced the severe test of 2008, the first quarter of 2009 was also a uncomfortable season for enterprises. The market continued to decline as expected, and there was no room for product prices to rise. Many enterprises felt unprecedented pressure. After entering March, due to the influence of market psychology and demand factors during the long period of last year and the Spring Festival, artificially suppressed market demand has loosened to a certain extent, and the generally high inventory of manufacturers has eased, but this obviously did not drive the rise of prices. After entering the second quarter, how will the market develop

analysis of the glass market situation in the second quarter of 2009

first of all, it is particularly worth pointing out that how the glass market develops in the second quarter must consider the economic development environment at home and abroad. Since the fourth quarter of 2008, the industrial growth rate has fallen sharply, and the contribution of heavy industry is more than 85%. The main reason is the decline in the growth rate of the upstream energy and raw materials industry. The fall in product prices is the primary reason, and the contribution of the fall in prices to the fall in total industrial output value is about 40%. The impact of the sharp fall in domestic demand is far more than that of exports. After August 2008, exports have maintained a steady decline trend. The negative impact of the fall in domestic demand is the main reason for the sharp fall in industrial production. With the sharp fall in the prices of upstream products such as crude oil, iron ore and steel, the price expectations of enterprises have been significantly reversed, resulting in a direct inventory adjustment. At present, the low price level of most products has fully reflected the impact of the overall decline in costs and demand. The unique characteristics of the financial crisis, such as globalization, stagnation and volatility, have brought serious impact to the world economy and caused serious damage to the real economy. Most international forecasting institutions predict that the global economy will continue to be depressed and adjusted in 2009

at present, some problems in Germany, Britain, Russia and other countries have begun to be exposed intensively, which may produce a new round of crisis shock wave. China's economy will still be in a difficult period in 2009, especially in the first half of the year. Due to China's high dependence on foreign trade (66.8% in 2007), the slowdown in global economic growth has led to a large increase in inventories of Chinese industrial enterprises and a sharp slowdown in production; Inventory adjustment leads to the decline of product price level and brings deflationary pressure; The sharp rise in the price of raw materials in the early stage, together with the current difficulties in product sales and the decline in selling prices, led to the continuous decline in the profitability of enterprises, and led to the decline in the growth rate of fiscal revenue. As the global economy continues to deteriorate, the impact on China's economy will expand and deepen. The domestic glass industry has fully felt the great pressure from the market in this economic crisis. The average profit level of the whole industry is on the edge of loss, and many manufacturers are jittery, and life is worse than death. From the perspective of current foreign and domestic policy support, this environment is still likely to continue to deteriorate, especially when the contradiction between oversupply and demand in the domestic glass market intensifies. In the second quarter, the capital demand of the glass industry will be more intense, and the possibility of capital chain fracture is increasing step by step

secondly, from the perspective of the government's demand stimulating policies, the positive impact on the domestic glass industry is limited, which can be seen from the development situation of the real estate industry. The government work report pointed out that credit, tax and other policies to support residents to purchase self occupied and improved housing should be implemented. For qualified buyers of the second set of ordinary self owned housing, the preferential policies for the purchase of ordinary self owned housing with the first loan shall be implemented mutatis mutandis; The business tax on housing transfer shall be reduced or exempted according to different years. We will promote the consumption and supply of ordinary commercial housing, and increase credit support for the construction of small and medium-sized apartments and low-cost ordinary commercial housing. We will accelerate the development of the second-hand housing market and the housing rental market. Encourage and guide all localities to stabilize and develop the real estate market according to local conditions, and strengthen the classified management of the housing market. It should be said that this is a major positive news for the real estate market. However, from the perspective of economic development law and market purchasing power, the downturn in the real estate market will continue. The demand recovery of the real estate market in the first tier cities in the past two to three months has certain seasonal and policy factors. In the next two quarters, it is unlikely that the real estate market will recover significantly. In other words, the stimulus effect of the policy is limited, the second is time lag, and the third is more wait-and-see in the current economic environment. Although the central and local governments have adopted active fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize the market, real estate development enterprises, based on the interest game, have slightly tried to reduce house prices in the wait-and-see, and have not adjusted in place according to the actual situation; In fact, banks did not actively act because housing loans were their main source of profits; Based on the expectation of house price reduction, consumers hold money to wait and see. From the perspective of supply and demand, the vacant area of commercial housing in China reached 1. 400million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 15. 3%. In the case of small actual purchase demand, it will take some time for the market to digest the stock houses

therefore, it can be predicted that in the second quarter of 2009, even if the trading volume of the real estate market has increased under the stimulation of the policy effect, developers will still choose to continue to reduce prices under the pressure of inventory. Then, the development of the real estate industry is restricted, and its impact on the glass market is direct. Because 70% of its demand is in the construction field, the decline of the new construction area of real estate has a great impact on it, while the output growth rate of the automotive industry, which accounts for 20% of the demand, has also declined rapidly. Coupled with the previous substantial expansion of the production capacity of the glass industry, the contradiction between supply and demand of the industry is extremely prominent. 1. The shrinking of the real estate industry means the shrinking demand of the glass market, and its adverse effect on the glass industry is obvious

third, from the current development trend of the industry, the industry competition is developing from chaos to Intentionalization. If the market competition in the past mainly focused on how to protect itself and defeat competitors, and the market was in a chaotic competition, then after the competition of last year and the "baptism" of the first quarter of this year, the Intentionalization of market competition is gradually becoming clear. Among them, the performance of Jiangsu China Resources is particularly prominent. It not only intends to suppress rivals in price, but also takes the lead in scale and continues to expand its industrial scale. Under the circumstances that most enterprises can't bear the pain and have stopped production of more than 40 production lines, Jiangsu China Resources first ignited and put into operation the first phase of the float production line built in Juye, Shandong Province in October 2008, and then, in February this year, the cold repair of lines 1 and 3 of China Resources Group was completed. China Resources is able to do so because it has received a large amount of financial support. The first syndicated loan project in Heze City led by Heze banking regulatory branch - high quality float glass 9 of Shandong Jurun building materials Co., Ltd. established by China Resources in Juye, Shandong. The 300 million yuan loan was officially signed on March 18

five banks, including China Construction Bank Shandong branch and Bank of China Shandong Branch, jointly signed a loan of nearly 1billion yuan for Shandong Jurun special high-quality float glass project. It's no wonder that China Resources is going to be rich. According to the investment plan of China Resources, all the eight 700 ton float lines it invested in Juye will be put into operation next year. Recently, news broke out that China Resources will build a line in Qian'an, Hebei, from East China to South China, from South China to East China, North China and even the northeast. The ambition of Jiangsu China Resources has become clear. The government work report clearly pointed out that we should vigorously promote the adjustment of enterprise organizational structure, mergers and acquisitions, support advantageous enterprises to merge backward enterprises and difficult enterprises, encourage strong alliances and upstream and downstream integrated operations, and improve industrial concentration and resource allocation efficiency. This is both inevitable and necessary for the glass industry. Under the background of the current economic downturn, it provides an opportunity for the promotion of the reorganization of the domestic glass industry, which has been chaotic for many years. For the glass industry, at present, opportunities outweigh risks. Enterprises with strong competitiveness just take advantage of economic adjustment to promote enterprise organizational structure adjustment and merger and reorganization. Now, Jiangsu China resources uses the strategy of continuously expanding its own scale and using its own advantages to crush its rivals. The enterprises that originally implemented the industry restructuring are now in a wait-and-see state. With the further intensification of the corporate profit crisis, the life of glass enterprises will be more difficult in the second quarter. It is worth looking forward to the form of industry restructuring. However, it is extremely obvious that enterprises are changing from traditional chaotic competition thinking to development thinking, and the goal of enterprise development will increasingly show obvious intention. This will be more obvious in the second quarter

fourth, various adverse factors will restrict the role of positive factors. In 2009, due to the downturn of the real estate market, the situation of the glass industry is still grim. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of statistics, China's cumulative production of flat glass in August was 8537. 330000 weight boxes, 6.54 million weight boxes less than the same period in 2008, a year-on-year decrease of 7. 11%。 In February, the flat glass enterprises produced 2320 flat glass. 680000 weight boxes, down 18% from the same period last year. 8%; The total production of flat glass is 4388. 390000 weight boxes, down 21% from the same period last year. 96%; Flat glass 2434 sold this month. 950000 weight boxes, down 3% from the same period last year. 12%, 4537 flat glass were sold in total. 860000 weight boxes, down 8% from the same period last year. 66%。 The sales rate of flat glass this month was 104. 92%, an increase of 14 over the previous month. 23 percentage points, an increase of 4% over the same period last year. 83 percentage points, with a cumulative sales rate of 104. 09%, 2220 flat glass inventory at the end of the month. 220000 weight boxes, a decrease of 10% over the same period last year. 30%。 The statistics of key contact enterprises in February showed that the output of glass continued to decline, with a decrease of 202 over the previous month. 0.04 million weight boxes, down 8 month on month. 0%, a decrease of 562 over the same month last year. Among the 290000 weight boxes, 76% of the enterprises in the statistics have reduced their production capacity. Enterprises reduce their production capacity through cold repair or shutdown, or appropriately extend the overhaul and technological transformation cycle, postpone the ignition time, and wait for the market to recover. Glass prices continued to fall in February, with the average price of float glass at 58. 57 yuan/weight box, down 3% from January. 26 yuan/weight box, a decrease of 5. 27%, a year-on-year decrease of 16. 95 yuan/weight box, a decrease of 22. 44%。 The average price of flat glass for providing information to customers this month is 56. 19 yuan/weight box, down 2% from January. 35 yuan/weight box, with a decrease of 4. It is easy for Northeast China's press to sell to Hainan 3 yadu. 01%, down 8% from the same period last year. 11 yuan/weight box, a decrease of 12. 61%。 In terms of exports, since last October, due to the extreme contraction of external demand, China's exports have been hit hard, and the economic growth rate has declined rapidly. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year was only 6. 8%, down significantly from 9% in the previous quarter, hitting the lowest quarterly growth rate in nine years. In the last two months of 2008, domestic and foreign trade exports fell continuously, and the import volume fell even more. Affected by factors such as the continued deterioration of the crisis, the grim situation of foreign trade in 2009 continued

in terms of exports, first, the economies of the United States and the European Union have not yet bottomed out, and China's commodity exports will

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