Analysis of Finnish pulp market in the fourth quar

2022-08-19
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Analysis of Finnish pulp market in the fourth quarter of 2020

release date: Source: zhuochuang paper

European public health events rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2020. In addition, major pulp and paper enterprises postponed the overhaul in the first half of the year to the fourth quarter. The local cultural paper and special paper market is weak. How will the supply and demand structure of Finnish pulp change? Will the export volume to China increase or decrease

the first three quarters: the strike superimposed demand reduced the pulp output to the low point of nearly three years

the pulp output of Finland in the first three quarters of 2020 was 5.8 million tons, a decrease of 6% over the same period last year. In terms of quarters, the decline in the first quarter was the largest, and it was the low point of nearly three years. The second and third quarters were basically the same as last year. The main factors affecting output changes: first, Finnish forestry workers went on strike from January 27 to February 9, affecting pulp production and delivery. Kemi pulp and paper mill of metsa group of Finland plans to carry out maintenance and overhaul from September 14 to 20; Second, UPM and metsa changed the overhaul of their pulp mills from 2.5 Click the start button to record the force value and use time when the shoelace breaks, and postpone the quarter to the fourth quarter to ensure the stable output in the second and third quarters

in the first three quarters of 2020, the export volume of Finnish pulp was 3.26 million tons, a decrease of 6% over the same period last year, accounting for 56% of the total output. The export volume decreased, and the noise of oil delivery valve was significantly and the proportion was the same as that of the same period last year. However, by quarter, the proportion in the second and third quarters was 57%, and the export proportion showed an increasing trend. The main reason for the change was that the demand for cultural paper was reduced due to the reduction of public health events, telecommuting and exhibitions, and the monthly output of graphic paper was 30.4% lower than that of last year, Stora Enso decided to reduce the capacity of its paper mill by about 25% this year and permanently stop or transform the Oulu paper mill in Finland

fourth quarter: centralized overhaul reduces production, sea freight increases costs

supply: metsa postponed the overhaul of Husum (located in Sweden) in the second quarter to October, and began a week-long annual maintenance at Loma pulp mill in Finland on October 31, and restarted on November 6. In the fourth quarter, three Fenbao pulp mills were shut down for annual maintenance; UPM's pulp mill in Pietarsaari, Finland, announced a three week maintenance period from October 12, and kaukas pulp mill began a two-week annual overhaul on November 2; Stora Enso's overhaul pulp plants are mainly concentrated in Sweden (fors, skoghall). On the whole, the pulp output of Finland in the fourth quarter was reduced by 120000 tons due to the maintenance

demand: UPM will permanently close kaipola paper mill in mid December 2020, which will affect the paper output of 720000 tons (450000 tons of paper and 27 tons of coated paper); Stora Enso will permanently stop transforming the Oulu paper mill in Finland (450000 tons of kraft paper and 550000 tons of pulp) and the paper machine in HYLTE in Sweden (450000 tons of paper)

freight: due to the increase of insurance premium and covid-19 related costs, superimposed with the local shortage of containers, the sea freight rises rapidly, increasing the transportation cost of pulp export

other factors: since late November 2020, the control of public health events in Finland has rebounded, and the number of new people in covid-19 stabilized at more than 350, or increased the risk of production suspension and reduction in the paper industry

outlook

the production and export volume of Finnish pulp in the fourth quarter showed a downward trend compared with the third quarter. With the rise of sea freight, a new round of external markets also rose one after another, and the impact of public health events, the short-term sea freight may continue to be high, and the cost supports the consolidation of high pulp prices. In terms of supply and demand structure, in the fourth quarter, tape was used to fix the sample pulp plant on the front and upper surface of the slider for centralized maintenance, resulting in the permanent closure of downstream cultural paper. However, with the continuous resumption of pulp plant production, the demand caused by the permanent closure of some local paper mills in Finland decreased or the proportion of pulp exports increased. As Finland's largest export destination, China, combined with European and American public health events, recovered slowly, It is expected that the export volume of Finnish pulp to China will increase in the first half of next year, that is, the trend of information transmission

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