Heavy pressure on environmental protection: the shutdown pressure of the cement industry goes hand in hand with the capacity reduction
due to the non-compliance of the total emission of air pollutants in the second quarter of 2018, Wuhu City, Anhui Province, recently required cement enterprises to shut down a total of 17 clinker production lines for a total of 6 days
"the enterprises affected this time include conch cement, Nanfang cement, but there are still some shortcomings in the development of Banfang cement, Leida cement, etc." On June 27, Wang Xiaoliang, senior analyst of digital cement of China Cement Association, told the 21st Century Business Herald that it is expected that the shutdown in Wuhu will reduce the supply of clinker by about 500000 tons
this relatively sudden forced shutdown has become the "normal" of the cement industry this year. Since this year, cement enterprises in Shandong, Hebei and Jiangsu have also stopped production. "In 2017, the forced shutdown time was relatively long, but the number of times was relatively small, while this year it was relatively frequent and unstable." Wang Xiaoliang said that according to the normal market, at present, China's cement industry is in the off-season and the price is in the downward cycle, but Wuhu is one of the main producers of cement clinker supply in the Yangtze River Delta. This shutdown will continue to make the cement price in East China continue to run at a medium high level in the short term. "
for the cement industry that has entered the platform period, supply side reform and environmental protection supervision have become important factors affecting the supply-demand relationship of China's cement industry. Wang Xiaoliang believes that with the gradual advancement of environmental protection supervision, if the supervision is normalized and regularized, rather than a one size fits all shutdown, it will promote China's cement industry to enter the de capacity stage from the de production steel after cold deformation, making the de capacity of the cement industry "break the ice"
cement industry "cleaning"
China's cement output accounts for 60% of the global cement output, and the pollutant emission caused by it is also concerned by the society. In order to control the pollution of the cement industry and promote the green transformation of the industry, the state has also issued a series of policies in recent years to guide cement enterprises to take off the hat of "three highs"
since June 2017, the Ministry of environmental protection and the Ministry of industry and information technology have issued a series of measures to strengthen the supervision of pollutant emissions. On August 7, 2017, the fourth batch of central environmental protection supervision was launched to maintain a high-pressure situation and severely crack down on pollution exceeding the standard. Under the heavy pressure of environmental protection, enterprises with excessive pollution emissions had to stop production, and those who were serious were shut down. The cement industry is no exception. From last year to this year, many places have stopped production for varying periods of time
"shutdown increases the operating costs and labor costs of enterprises, and will also have an impact on downstream industries." Zhengjianhui, chief researcher of China cement and China Cement Research Institute, said that the orange and red warning weather further requires enterprises to stop production in a centralized manner, and the measures such as staggering peak production in northern heating places make enterprises bear certain additional costs while reducing production capacity
according to the national emission standard of air pollutants for cement industry, the special emission limit of NOx is 320 mg/m3. "As early as twoorthree years ago, China's cement enterprises have installed desulfurization and denitration devices according to this standard," Wang Xiaoliang said. More than 90% of the enterprises have reached the emission standard, but some enterprises have not reached the standard
nationwide, the air emission requirements of various provinces are slightly different. For example, Henan, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Zhejiang have successively issued the minimum emission standards for cement in 2018, with nitrogen oxide emission limits ranging from 100 mg/m3 to 150 mg/m3. Industry insiders believe that it is not easy to implement these standards. Zheng Jianhui said, "nitrogen oxide emission reduction equipment needs at least several million investment, in addition to operational investment, which is not very willing for some enterprises to accept the largest R & D base in northern Europe at present."
Wang Xiaoliang also takes an example. Generally, the investment of a cement plant is about billion yuan, while the cost of environmental protection equipment is about several million yuan. In terms of later operation, the operation and maintenance cost of environmental protection equipment per ton of cement is about yuan, which has little impact when the product price is high, but in case of shutdown or business depression, it will increase the cost pressure of the enterprise
judging from the current implementation of environmental protection policies, there are still some problems. Insiders said that on the one hand, the implementation of environmental protection standards has not been fully implemented, and some cement enterprises still have the problem of secretly discharging pollutants; On the other hand, the "one size fits all" of some environmental protection policies is not conducive to the sustainable development of the industry
in fact, the shutdown of cement enterprises in northern China has tended to be normalized. "For example, in November every year, cement enterprises in northern China will take the initiative to stop production in line with local environmental protection requirements," Wang Xiaoliang said. However, most of the southern regions that have stopped production this year are irregular, and adopt a one size fits all approach to the shutdown of cement enterprises, resulting in the production of some standard cement enterprises being affected. If we follow the regular and normalized supervision of the northern region, it will help enterprises make production adjustments that fully comply with the current trend of industry 4.0
de capacity promotion
environmental protection is an important starting point for the de capacity of the cement industry
as early as 2010, the State Council issued the notice on Further Strengthening the elimination of backward production capacity, requiring the building materials industry to eliminate the backward cement production capacity such as cement mechanized shaft kiln production line with a kiln diameter of less than 3.0 meters, cement dry process hollow kiln with a kiln diameter of less than 2.5 meters (except for the production of high alumina cement), cement soil (egg) kiln and ordinary shaft kiln by the end of 2012
at present, most of the backward production capacity has been basically eliminated. The Research Report of lianxun securities cement industry shows that on the surface, the overall overcapacity of the cement industry is about 450 million tons (clinker), accounting for about 24% of the total existing production capacity
but on the whole, after large-scale closures and mergers and acquisitions, the current cement market situation is still severe, and North China is the hardest hit area for the cement industry to lose money. Zheng Jianhui pointed out that the overcapacity in the northern region is relatively serious, and the demand has also declined year after year, with a decline rate of more than 20% in the past two years. Some large enterprises such as Jinyu Jidong and others, as well as some enterprises in the northwest region, have unsatisfactory performance
insiders said that at present, the inferior production capacity that needs to be eliminated accounts for about 20% of the national cement production capacity, but the elimination of this part of production capacity has basically not made much progress, and most enterprises are in the stage of production reduction rather than production reduction
another person in the cement industry also said that previously, the state has made top-level design for the construction of ecological civilization, and the State Council has also set the direction and tone for the recent strict and carpet style environmental protection actions to be implemented into high-level policies. For the cement industry, this indicates that the environmental protection caliber will be more stringent in the future, which will effectively promote the implementation of the industry's de production and the "ice breaking" of de production capacity
for cement enterprises, although they are facing great pressure in environmental protection and emission reduction, in the long run, the overweight of environmental protection measures is beneficial to enterprises
from the perspective of enterprise profits, Zheng Jianhui said that the mandatory shutdown in environmental protection supervision has reduced the cement supply in the market, and the reduction of short-term supply side has a stimulating effect on the rise of prices. When the demand is sufficient, a long-term shutdown can also cover the cost of enterprises. In terms of operation, the pressure of environmental protection standards forces enterprises to transform and upgrade, and promotes enterprises to develop new technologies in energy conservation, emission reduction and denitration transformation, bringing space for the healthy development of enterprises
Zheng Jianhui also said that using environmental protection policies to reduce production capacity is not only the need to solve the current overcapacity problem in the cement industry, but also the need to realize the industrial upgrading of the cement industry, use less resource consumption and pollutant emissions, meet the social and economic construction, and realize the long-term development of the industry
"in terms of enterprise response measures, staggered peak production can be used as one of the ways to reduce production capacity." Zheng Jianhui said that the off peak production in the heating season can reduce the operation time of enterprises by more than 100 days, that is, remove the production capacity of more than 100 days, effectively resolve overcapacity while reducing pollutant emissions, and better reflect the social value of resources consumed by clinker production
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